THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Chicago (3-3, 3-2-1 ATS) at (2) Boston (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS)
Arguably the most thrilling first-round series in NBA playoffs history comes down to a winner-takes-all Game 7, as the defending-champion Celtics host the upstart Bulls at TD Banknorth Garden.
Chicago needed three overtimes to stay alive in Game 6 on Thursday, winning 128-127 but failing to cover as a three-point home favorite. It was the fourth time in six games – and the third time in a row – that these teams failed to finish in regulation. Two of the four overtime games have required multiple sessions, and with the exception of Boston’s 107-86 blowout victory in Game 3 in Chicago, the other five contests have been decided by a total of 11 points – all by three points or less.
John Salmons (35 points), rookie Derrick Rose (28 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) and Game 5 goat Brad Miller (23 points, 10 rebounds) led the way for the Bulls in Game 6, with Rose blocking Rajon Rondo’s game-winning attempt in the waning seconds of the third overtime to seal it. Chicago shot 49.5 percent from the field, going 9-for-17 from three-point land, and it survived despite an off night from injured shooting guard Ben Gordon, who had 12 points and fouled out after 31 minutes.
Boston was pushed to this Game 7 despite the heroic play of Ray Allen, who had a career-playoff high 51 points and tied a postseason record with nine three-pointers (on 18 attempts). Glen Davis added 23 points and seven rebounds, while Paul Pierce chipped in 22 points and nine boards, but both fouled out in overtime. The Celtics shot just 43.4 percent, going 11-for-31 from three-point land, and although Rondo had 19 assists and nine rebounds, the talented point guard was limited to a series-low eight points.
The winning team has scored at least 105 points in every game of this series, and both teams have topped the century mark in five of the six contests. Boston is averaging 117.2 points per game in this series, while Chicago is netting 113.7 ppg. The Celtics have scored 100 or more in 14 of their last 15 games, and the Bulls have accomplished that feat in 21 of their last 27 contests, averaging 108 ppg during this stretch.
Boston is now 15-5 SU in its last 20 games overall, but just 6-6-1 ATS in its last 12. Chicago is on a 15-7 SU roll, going 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13.
Boston is now 9-4 SU in the last 13 meetings with the Bulls and 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14. However, Chicago is 4-2-1 ATS in the six clashes since March 17. Also, the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS during this seven-meeting stretch after the favorite had cashed in each of the previous nine in this rivalry.
Prior to the start of this series, the Celtics had won and covered four straight at home against Chicago over the past two seasons, winning by margins of 18, 16, 23 and 25 points. However, the Bulls easily got the money in the first three games of this series in Boston, twice cashing as an 8½-point underdog and then as a 7½-point pup in Game 5.
Despite the non-cover in Game 6, the Bulls are still in the midst of pointspread streaks that include 5-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 16-5-1 as an underdog regardless of venue, 7-1-1 when catching between five and 10½ points, 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-2-1 in first-round postseason games and 5-2-1 versus winning teams,
The Celtics are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games on Saturday and they’ve cashed in seven of their last 10 playing on one day of rest. Aside from that, though, it’s all negative pointspread trends for Doc Rivers’ squad, including 5-14 at home (all as a chalk), 7-15 as a favorite, 2-5 when laying points in the playoffs, 2-8 after a SU loss, 1-4-1 after an ATS win and 1-11 when favored by five to 10½ points in the playoffs.
The over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams, including 5-1 in this series and 3-0 in the three games played in Boston. Additionally, for the Celtics, the over is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 20-7 against the Eastern Conference, 9-2 in first-round postseason games and 6-1 when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the Bulls are on “over” stretches of 16-6 as an underdog, 6-0 when catching points in the playoffs, 9-2 in first-round playoff action, 11-4 against the Atlantic Division, 7-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (10-12) at Philadelphia (11-10)
The defending World Series champion Phillies will trot out ageless left-hander Jamie Moyer (3-1, 5.09 ERA) for Game 2 of their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the Mets, who will counter with southpaw Oliver Perez (1-2, 9.31).
In Friday’s opener, New York jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held off Philadelphia 7-4, with starter Mike Pelfrey (three runs, seven hits, 5 1/3 innings) getting the win and contributing two RBIs to the cause. Despite the victory, the Mets remain on a 4-7 skid in their last 11 starts, and they are on further slides of 1-4 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams, though they’ve won their last four Saturday contests.
Friday’s setback aside, the Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven and are on additional upticks of 35-17 overall (playoffs included), 9-1 against lefties, 5-2 in the N.L. East, 37-19 at home and 35-18 against losing teams.
This is the first series of the season between these rivals. With Friday’s victory, the Mets have won five of their last six outings in Philadelphia, and they are 12-7 overall in 19 meetings with the Phillies dating to the beginning of last season.
Moyer has won his last three starts, including Sunday’s 13-2 road wipeout of Florida in which he allowed one run on seven hits and a walk in six innings, with six strikeouts. The 46-year-old, making his fifth start of the season, is 1-1 with an inflated 6.55 ERA in two home starts.
Moyer has been solid against the Mets, going 7-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 17 career appearances, including 2-1 with a 3.53 ERA and three no-decisions in six starts last year. The Phillies are on a handful of runs with Moyer on the hill, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 9-3 at home against losing teams and 26-8 against the N.L. East.
The Mets have lost in three of Perez’s four starts this season, including an 8-1 rout last Sunday at Washington, with Perez getting tagged for seven runs (all earned) on nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings. He yielded a pair of homers, walked three and struck out three. Perez is 0-1 with an eye-popping 12.00 ERA in two road starts this year.
Perez is 2-3 despite a solid 3.15 ERA in 12 career starts against the Phillies, going 1-0 last year with a minuscule 0.35 ERA in four starts, with the Mets going 3-1 in those contests. Philly is just 1-5 in Perez’s last five starts, but backing Perez, they remain on runs of 10-4 against winning teams, 5-1 on the road against winning teams and 10-3 in division play.
The under is 8-2 in Moyer’s last 10 starts against the Mets and 4-0 in Perez’s last four outings against the Phillies.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 12-5-2 overall, 6-2-2 inside the division, 4-1-1 in Moyer’s last six starts and 9-4 with Moyer facing losing teams, and the over for New York is on streaks of 10-2-2 behind Perez and 5-0-1 with Perez throwing on the road. However, the under is on rolls of 4-1-1 in Philly’s last six home games, 4-1-2 overall for the Mets and 5-1-2 for New York against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (14-9) at Tampa Bay (10-14)
Right-handed knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (2-1, 1.86 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox in Game 3 of a four-game set at Tropicana Field against the defending A.L. champion Rays, who will start 6-foot-9-inch rookie Jeff Niemann (2-2, 4.43).
For the second straight night, Tampa Bay breezed past Boston, scoring all six of its runs in the fifth inning to overcome a 2-0 deficit and post a 6-2 victory. The Sox have dropped two in a row and three of four, but are still on runs of 12-3 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 7-2 against the A.L. East and 8-3 against right-handers. On the downside, they are 9-24 in their last 33 starts on artificial turf, and they’ve been outscored 19-2 in the first two games of this series.
The Rays are on rolls of 62-25 at home (4-5 this year) and 47-15 at Tropicana against right-handers, but they’ve gone just 6-11 in their last 17 games overall (playoffs included) and are on additional skids of 0-5 on Saturday and 4-7 on artificial turf.
Tampa Bay has won four in a row in this rivalry and 15 of the last 21 overall, and the Rays have topped the Sox in 13 of the last 16 clashes in Tampa Bay.
The Red Sox have won three in a row behind Wakefield, including a 3-1 road victory over Cleveland on Monday in which the 42-year-old got a no-decision but threw seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit and four walks, with five strikeouts. During the three-game run, Wakefield has allowed just three earned runs in 23 innings (1.18 ERA), including a complete-game 8-2 win at Oakland in which he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. He is 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA in three road outings this season.
In 41 career appearances (31 starts) against Tampa, Wakefield is 19-5 with a 3.32 ERA, though he went 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts last year, including a 13-4 blitzing in the American League Championship Series. In that contest in Boston, he allowed five runs on six hits (three homers) in just 2 2/3 innings. With Wakefield on the hill, the Red Sox are on a 24-9 against a losing team, but they are on slides of 0-6 on field turf, 3-11 in the A.L. East and 7-15 on the road.
Nieman lost his first two starts of the 2009 campaign but has come back with a pair of wins. On Monday at Minnesota, he gave up one run on a solo homer and allowed just two more hits and four walks, with four strikeouts, in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 rout. The 26-year-old is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in two road starts this season. The right-hander, who had just five career appearances prior to this season, is facing the Red Sox for the first time.
The under is 5-2 in the last five Red Sox-Rays battles. Otherwise, though, the over for Boston is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 8-2 on the road, 16-5-1 on Saturday, 5-1-1 with Wakefield throwing, 5-1-1 on the road behind Wakefield and 5-1 with Wakefield facing an A.L. East foe. Similarly, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 4-1 at home, 36-17 against right-handed starters and 20-7 at home against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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